Probability of Success
The Probability of Success application is designed to forecast how likely a particular fund is to succeed in achieving future accumulation goals after inflation. You tell us what your goals are and the fund you would like to test and we can tell you how likely that fund is to achieve your goal. We can also give you a probable range of returns; the likely volatility (how ‘bumpy’ the ride is) and tracking error (how different the returns might be in any given time period from the indices which are reported on the news). Investing involves real world trade-offs between meeting return targets vs. keeping returns smooth vs. keeping your return statements close to the same returns as the general market. You can’t get them all. This application helps you see how much of the probability of success you might be sacrificing to pursue the other two goals.